[00:00:01] The Courage to Be Unreasonable - 英语演讲 [00:00:06] Commencement Address by Eric Schmidt [00:00:10] at University of Pennsylvania [00:00:13] Thank you for that. [00:00:16] Let me begin by congratulating all the graduates. [00:00:20] It’s exciting to be graduating [00:00:23] and I especially want to congratulate the parents. [00:00:26] And remember that they still need you [00:00:29] and maybe they’ll now listen to you. [00:00:32] And if you aren’t sure who I’m talking to, [00:00:35] I’m actually talking to both the parents [00:00:38] and the students, so congratulations to everybody. [00:00:43] We owe a debt in my industry-to Penn- [00:00:48] that is profound. It was in 1946 [00:00:53] that the ENIAC was invented, [00:00:57] right here in a basement down the street. [00:00:59] And literally everything that you see, [00:01:03] every computer, every mobile phone, [00:01:06] every device, descends from the principles [00:01:09] that were invented right here. [00:01:11] This really is the center of my world. [00:01:14] And now 63 years later, 250 of your alumni work at Google. [00:01:24] This is the most desirable place for us [00:01:28] to hire interns anywhere in the world [00:01:30] and I can tell you that we know the quality [00:01:33] of the graduates that I see before me [00:01:36] are the best in the world. [00:01:38] It is exciting to be part of this. [00:01:40] Now, when I think about Penn, [00:01:45] I think about the metaphor of resilience, [00:01:49] of a culture that works, of a hunger to change. [00:01:54] If you think about 20 years ago, [00:01:56] when Penn was struggling and the changes [00:01:59] that the people around me made [00:02:01] to turn it into the most desirable undergraduate major [00:02:04] from a standpoint of high school applications [00:02:07] in the country, from the kind of culture [00:02:10] that has been built here, you see that the culture works, [00:02:13] and that the combination that you see represented [00:02:17] on the stage that the parents are so proud to [00:02:20] have sent their students to really has delivered, [00:02:23] the very best that we can do here in America. [00:02:26] And of course, we also have the best cheese [00:02:32] steaks in the world, which is not so bad. [00:02:35] When I look at this group, I see the Google [00:02:40] and Facebook generation. And when I was first [00:02:44] in this stadium, my track buddies [00:02:46] and I got in a station wagon-you remember them- [00:02:49] and I drove up here to go to a track and field [00:02:52] event with the great Marty Liquori. [00:02:56] And I think this is almost 40 years ago. [00:02:59] We had Tang, you have Red Bull. [00:03:03] Now, we programmed computers in a language called BASIC. [00:03:10] You, of course, use Java. [00:03:12] We had VCRs that had an hour of video and cost $700. [00:03:21] You use YouTube and you upload 15 hours [00:03:25] of YouTube video every minute. [00:03:28] And we got our news from newspapers. [00:03:32] Remember them? You get news from blogs and tweets. [00:03:36] And for those of you who don’t know [00:03:39] what a tweet is, it’s not what you hear in a zoo. [00:03:43] We stood in line to buy Pong, [00:03:48] you stood in line to buy the Wii. [00:03:52] We didn’t tell people about our most [00:03:56] embarrassing moments in college, [00:03:58] you record them and post them on YouTube [00:04:01] and Facebook every day. And I am looking forward [00:04:05] to watching these for the next 30 or 40 years. [00:04:08] We used mainframe computers with 300 megabytes [00:04:14] of storage to go to the moon 6 times. [00:04:17] You use an iPod with 120 gigabytes, [00:04:22] that’s about 500 times more, [00:04:24] to get to your next class. [00:04:26] Which is not that close, [00:04:30] because it’s an urban campus. [00:04:33] We thought that “friending” was a noun. [00:04:37] You think of it as a verb. [00:04:40] We had phone booths, remember them? [00:04:44] You have cell phones. [00:04:46] We wore watches; we took pictures with cameras. [00:04:52] We navigated with maps; [00:04:54] we listened to transistor radios. [00:04:57] Again, you have a cell phone. [00:04:59] We thought that the marvels of computers [00:05:04] and technology would help us improve the world. [00:05:07] You agree, and we’re both right. [00:05:10] So despite all these marvels, [00:05:12] this a great time to be graduating. [00:05:15] Now, you went to college to develop [00:05:20] the kind of analytical thinking skills [00:05:22] to deal with enormous amounts of complex information [00:05:25] that you’ll face for the rest of your life. [00:05:28] But I would argue you have in many ways [00:05:32] the best opportunity before you [00:05:34] because you’re graduating into a tough time. [00:05:38] I used my favorite search engine of course [00:05:43] to find out “What did the Great Depression spur?” [00:05:47] Well, it spurred Rice Krispies, Twinkies [00:05:51] and the beer can. You would have never gotten [00:05:55] through college without these things, right? [00:05:57] So it seems to me that with all the technology [00:06:02] and connectedness that we see, [00:06:05] you have an opportunity that’s even better, [00:06:08] even stronger than anything that I ever faced [00:06:12] when I was sitting in the same seats. [00:06:14] You are seeing a situation where due to the enormous goodwill [00:06:19] of people-here on the stage and others- [00:06:22] we have an opportunity to have everyone [00:06:25] in the world have access to all the world’s information. [00:06:29] This has never been possible. [00:06:33] And why is this so important? [00:06:36] Why is ubiquitous information so profound? [00:06:40] It’s a tremendous equalizer. [00:06:44] Information is power, people have fought over it, [00:06:48] people care a lot about it, [00:06:50] it serves as a check and balance on politicians. [00:06:54] If you were a dictator, which of course you’re [00:06:58] not going to be, because you’re a fine graduate from Penn, [00:07:01] first thing you would do is shut off all the communication [00:07:05] so that people couldn’t actually talk each other [00:07:09] and figure out how to make the world a better place. [00:07:12] Information is very, very important. [00:07:17] And, in fact, the way you should invade [00:07:21] these oppressive regimes is through information. [00:07:24] Then the citizens will take that information [00:07:28] and turn their societies into better societies. [00:07:31] This is going to continue and to continue and to continue. [00:07:37] And what are we going to do with this vastly [00:07:42] more popular web? Well we’re building a contemporaneous [00:07:48] and historical record that is unparalleled in human history. [00:07:52] There are all sorts of interesting possibilities. [00:07:55] You’ll have megabits of bandwidth to [00:08:01] essentially every human pair of hands in the world. [00:08:04] For knowledge, for entertainment, [00:08:06] for all of the things that people care about. [00:08:10] You could have a face-to-face meeting across the world. [00:08:14] And with automatic translation, [00:08:17] you can talk to them even though [00:08:19] they don’t speak your language. [00:08:21] When you’re traveling in Mongolia, [00:08:25] those of you who are graduating [00:08:27] and want to take a week off, [00:08:29] go to Mongolia and you fall off your motorcycle, [00:08:33] you can get medical care from a doctor [00:08:35] that doesn’t speak your language [00:08:37] because your medical records can be right there. [00:08:41] This is life changing, life saving, life fundamental. [00:08:48] Imagine a situation, happening very soon, [00:08:53] where all of the world’s information [00:08:55] will be translated into all the other languages, [00:08:58] so we can find out what everybody really thinks. [00:09:02] And we can develop a new insight into [00:09:05] what they care about and they can with us. [00:09:09] In the next ten years, it will be possible [00:09:12] to have the equivalent of iPods in your purse [00:09:15] or on your belt with 85 years of video. [00:09:20] Which means that if it’s given to you at birth, [00:09:24] you’re going to be frustrated the whole time, [00:09:28] you’ll never be done watching all the videos. [00:09:32] That’s how profound this technological revolution is. [00:09:35] You could ask Google the most important questions, [00:09:42] like, where are my car keys after all? [00:09:45] Because all of a sudden we’ll know [00:09:49] where everything is and we can make that available. [00:09:52] Computers are good at some things, [00:09:55] and they are particularly good at these sorts of things. [00:09:59] We can detect flu outbreaks, [00:10:02] because we can watch what people are doing quicker. [00:10:05] We can do things; here’s another example. [00:10:09] What I really want is while I’m typing a paper [00:10:13] I want the computer to tell me [00:10:15] what I should have been writing instead. [00:10:17] Wouldn’t that have been useful? [00:10:20] Another product that we’ve suggested [00:10:25] but has not been built yet is the paper lengthening project. [00:10:29] It adds ten percent to every paper and its recursive. [00:10:34] It would have been very useful. [00:10:36] The point is that computers really can help you, [00:10:40] even though you don’t need this anymore [00:10:43] now that you are out of college. [00:10:45] So if you think of mobile phones as a metaphor, [00:10:51] as an extension of you, with image recognition, [00:10:54] avatars and all the technologies that are coming, [00:10:58] you can see that the ability for us to [00:11:01] make our lives even more powerful is all right before us. [00:11:05] So what should you do, right now then? [00:11:11] Well you should start by listening to [00:11:14] George Bernard Shaw who said that, [00:11:16] “all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” [00:11:20] Graduation gives you the courage to be unreasonable. [00:11:27] Don’t bother to have a plan. [00:11:29] Instead let’s have some luck. [00:11:31] Success is really about being ready [00:11:35] for the good opportunities that come before you. [00:11:37] It’s not to have a detailed plan [00:11:40] about everything you’re going to do, [00:11:43] you can’t plan innovation or inspiration, [00:11:46] but you can be ready for it. [00:11:50] And when you see it, you can jump on it [00:11:52] and you can make a difference, [00:11:54] as many of the people here today have already done. [00:11:57] The important point here is, [00:12:02] if you forgo your plan you also [00:12:05] then have to forgo fear. [00:12:07] In many ways in the last four years [00:12:10] and maybe in high school as well, [00:12:13] you’ve been penalized for making mistakes. [00:12:16] From now on, the rewards will gravitate [00:12:19] to those who make mistakes and learn from them, [00:12:22] as the president said. [00:12:24] So stop right now. Take a minute [00:12:29] and think of something completely new [00:12:32] and go work on that. Take that as your challenge; [00:12:36] take that as your opportunity. [00:12:39] Whatever you care the most about. [00:12:42] So how should you do it, how should you behave? [00:12:48] Well, do it in a group, it’s much more fun anyway. [00:12:51] None of us is as smart as all of us. [00:12:56] Universities now are good at [00:12:58] teaching you how to work with other people. [00:13:00] It’s no longer the lone night sitting [00:13:04] in the lab, it’s a team. [00:13:06] And you can see Twitter as an example of [00:13:12] a form of social intelligence; use it. [00:13:14] Find a network of people that care about you [00:13:18] and so forth and so on. [00:13:20] You can imagine watching Watson and Crick, [00:13:23] who discovered the structure of DNA, [00:13:26] did it at a university. [00:13:28] You can imagine today, there are two people [00:13:33] who probably met on Facebook at a university. [00:13:36] And then are going to say to each other, [00:13:39] “What are you up to right now?”